The Thai economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT). This growth will be driven by a number of factors, including:
- Rebound in tourism: Thailand is a popular tourist destination, and the reopening of its borders is expected to boost tourism revenue significantly.
- Strong domestic consumption: Private consumption is expected to remain strong, as consumer confidence continues to improve.
- Government stimulus: The government is expected to continue to provide fiscal stimulus, which will support economic activity.
Inflation
Inflation is expected to remain elevated in 2023, but it is expected to moderate in 2024. The BOT expects headline inflation to average 2.0% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. Core inflation is expected to average 1.2% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024.
Risks to the Outlook
The main risks to the economic outlook are:
- Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in the global economy could dampen exports and tourism, which would weigh on economic growth.
- Financial risks: Financial stability could be challenged by rising interest rates and a slowdown in economic growth.
- Political uncertainty: Political uncertainty could deter investment and make it more difficult for the government to implement economic reforms.
Overall, the outlook for the Thai economy is positive. The economy is expected to grow steadily in the coming years, and inflation is expected to moderate. However, there are some risks to the outlook that could derail growth.
Here are some additional points to note about the Thailand economic outlook:
- The Thai economy is heavily reliant on exports, and therefore vulnerable to global economic conditions.
- The government is committed to fiscal prudence, which could limit its ability to respond to economic shocks.
- The Thai labor force is aging, which could put upward pressure on wages and limit economic growth.
Candlesticks
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.1963. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -129.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
SET 100 INDEX (Trade Price) is currently 8.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .SET100 at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .SET100 and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.
Shayne Heffernan
