Tariff War Fallout: Winners, Losers, and the Hardest-Hit U.S. Stocks ($AAPL, $BA, $CAT, $DE)
By Shayne Heffernan
The global trade landscape has been rocked by a fierce tariff war between the United States and China, with ripple effects felt across markets, industries, and households. As of April 13, 2025, the escalating conflict—marked by steep tariffs and retaliatory measures—has created clear winners and losers, while sending shockwaves through U.S.-listed companies. I’ve been tracking this economic showdown closely, and in this article, I’ll break down who’s coming out ahead, who’s taking the biggest hits, and which American stocks are bearing the brunt of this trade battle.
The Tariff War Intensifies
The latest chapter in this trade war unfolded recently when the U.S., under President Donald Trump, imposed a staggering 125% tariff on Chinese imports. China swiftly countered with an 84% levy on American goods, a move that has deepened the divide between the world’s two largest economies. This tit-for-tat began earlier this month when Trump initially slapped a 104% tariff on Chinese products, prompting Beijing to retaliate. The result is a full-scale economic confrontation with no immediate end in sight, and global markets are feeling the strain. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently called these tariffs a “self-inflicted wound,” warning of a heightened risk of recession in the U.S. due to their impact on growth and inflation.
Winners in the Tariff War
While the trade war has caused widespread disruption, some sectors and companies are finding ways to benefit. American steel and aluminum producers, for instance, are seeing a boost as tariffs on foreign metals—previously announced by Trump—make domestic production more competitive. Companies like U.S. Steel and Alcoa are likely to see increased demand as manufacturers turn to local suppliers to avoid import taxes. This aligns with Trump’s long-standing goal of bolstering U.S. manufacturing, and early data suggests these industries are reaping the rewards.
Smaller U.S. companies with minimal reliance on international supply chains are also emerging as winners. Firms in sectors like local agriculture or domestic consumer goods—think packaged foods or household products—are less exposed to the tariff fallout. For example, a company like Hormel Foods, which sources most of its raw materials domestically, may see steadier demand as imported goods become pricier for consumers.
On the global stage, countries like Vietnam and India stand to gain as manufacturers shift production away from China to avoid U.S. tariffs. These nations could see an influx of investment and trade, positioning them as alternative hubs for goods like electronics and textiles.
Losers in the Tariff War
The losers, however, are far more numerous and vocal. U.S. companies heavily reliant on Chinese imports or exports are taking a severe hit. The technology sector, in particular, is reeling due to its deep ties to Chinese manufacturing. Apple ($AAPL), for instance, has seen its stock plummet, losing 8.8% in a single day earlier this month and shedding over $300 billion in market capitalization. With more than 90% of its production based in China, Apple faces higher costs for its products, which could lead to price hikes for consumers and a potential drop in demand.
The aerospace and heavy equipment industries are also suffering. Boeing ($BA) and Caterpillar ($CAT) are among the hardest hit, as both rely on Chinese markets for significant revenue. Boeing, already grappling with production challenges, faces new hurdles as tariffs disrupt its supply chain and raise costs for parts. Caterpillar, a maker of construction equipment, is seeing reduced demand in China due to Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs, which make its products less competitive. Both companies saw their stock prices drop sharply, with losses exceeding 7% in the first week of April alone.
Agricultural equipment maker Deere & Company ($DE) is another casualty. China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods have hit American farmers hard, reducing their purchasing power for equipment. Deere’s stock has declined by more than 15% since the tariff escalation began, reflecting investor concerns about its exposure to the trade war.
Beyond these specific companies, entire sectors are feeling the pain. The auto industry, with its integrated supply chains across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, is particularly vulnerable. Morgan Stanley estimates that a 25% tariff on auto parts crossing borders multiple times during production could significantly drive up costs, potentially leading to higher car prices and lower demand. While companies like General Motors and Ford have seen relatively smaller declines—GM down 3.7% and Ford up 0.4% on a recent trading day—the broader sector remains at risk if tariffs persist.
Consumers are also on the losing end. The tariffs are expected to increase inflation, with Morgan Stanley predicting a 0.3 to 0.6% rise in personal consumption expenditures. This means everyday Americans will likely face higher prices for goods ranging from electronics to clothing, squeezing household budgets at a time when economic growth may already be slowing.
U.S. Stocks Most Affected
The tariff war has hammered U.S.-listed stocks, particularly those with significant exposure to China. As mentioned, Apple ($AAPL), Boeing ($BA), Caterpillar ($CAT), and Deere & Company ($DE) are among the biggest losers, with double-digit percentage drops in their stock prices since the latest tariffs were announced. Other notable casualties include tech giants like Nvidia, which lost 7.4% in a single day, and banks such as Wells Fargo and Bank of America, both down over 7% as investors fear a broader economic slowdown.
The so-called “Magnificent 7” tech stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla—collectively shed around $1.8 trillion in market value over two days in early April. Tesla, in particular, saw a 10.4% drop in its stock price, reflecting its reliance on Chinese manufacturing and sales. These declines highlight the vulnerability of companies with global supply chains and significant revenue from China.
A Murky Future
The U.S.-China tariff war shows no signs of abating, and the stakes are high for both economies. For the U.S., the tariffs may bolster certain domestic industries, but they come at the cost of higher inflation, slower growth, and strained international relationships. Morgan Stanley warns of a potential 0.7 to 1.1% decrease in real GDP, with stagflation—a mix of high inflation and low growth—becoming a real risk. Globally, the impact is even more severe, with Mexico potentially slipping into recession due to its reliance on U.S. trade.
For investors, the challenge is navigating this new reality. Some are turning to safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc, which have surged amid fears of an economic slowdown. Others are seeking tariff-proof investments, such as companies with strong domestic operations or minimal exposure to international trade. But for many U.S.-listed firms, particularly those in tech, aerospace, and agriculture, the road ahead looks daunting.
As I see it, this trade war is a double-edged sword. While it may deliver short-term gains for a few, the long-term costs—both economic and geopolitical—could be steep. For now, companies like Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, and Deere are on the front lines, and their struggles serve as a stark reminder of the far-reaching consequences of this global tariff battle.
Shayne Heffernan is a financial analyst and the founder of Knightsbridge, a global investment firm. With over 40 years of experience in trading and venture capital, he closely monitors economic trends and their impact on markets.
Sources: Information in this article is drawn from recent reports on the U.S.-China trade war, including analyses by Morgan Stanley and market data from early April 2025.
